Failure probability estimation of dynamic systems employing relaxed power spectral density functions with dependent frequency modeling and sampling

IF 3 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103592
Marco Behrendt , Meng-Ze Lyu , Yi Luo , Jian-Bing Chen , Michael Beer
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Abstract

This work addresses the critical task of accurately estimating failure probabilities in dynamic systems by utilizing a probabilistic load model based on a set of data with similar characteristics, namely the relaxed power spectral density (PSD) function. A major drawback of the relaxed PSD function is the lack of dependency between frequencies, which leads to unrealistic PSD functions being sampled, resulting in an unfavorable effect on the failure probability estimation. In this work, this limitation is addressed by various methods of modeling the dependency, including the incorporation of statistical quantities such as the correlation present in the data set. Specifically, a novel technique is proposed, incorporating probabilistic dependencies between different frequencies for sampling representative PSD functions, thereby enhancing the realism of load representation. By accounting for the dependencies between frequencies, the relaxed PSD function enhances the precision of failure probability estimates, opening the opportunity for a more robust and accurate reliability assessment under uncertainty. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed approach is demonstrated through numerical examples, showcasing its ability to provide reliable failure probability estimates in dynamic systems.

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利用依频率建模和采样的松弛功率谱密度函数估算动态系统的故障概率
这项研究通过利用基于一组具有相似特征的数据(即松弛功率谱密度 (PSD) 函数)的概率负荷模型,解决了在动态系统中准确估计故障概率的关键任务。松弛 PSD 函数的一个主要缺点是频率之间缺乏相关性,这导致采样的 PSD 函数不切实际,从而对故障概率估计产生不利影响。在这项工作中,我们采用了各种方法来模拟这种依赖性,包括纳入数据集中存在的相关性等统计量,从而解决了这一局限性。具体来说,本文提出了一种新颖的技术,在对具有代表性的 PSD 函数进行采样时,将不同频率之间的概率依赖关系纳入其中,从而增强了载荷表示的真实性。通过考虑频率之间的依赖关系,放宽 PSD 函数提高了故障概率估计的精确度,为在不确定情况下进行更稳健、更准确的可靠性评估提供了机会。我们通过数值示例证明了所提方法的有效性和准确性,展示了其在动态系统中提供可靠故障概率估计的能力。
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来源期刊
Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics
Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics 工程技术-工程:机械
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
15.40%
发文量
98
审稿时长
13.5 months
期刊介绍: This journal provides a forum for scholarly work dealing primarily with probabilistic and statistical approaches to contemporary solid/structural and fluid mechanics problems encountered in diverse technical disciplines such as aerospace, civil, marine, mechanical, and nuclear engineering. The journal aims to maintain a healthy balance between general solution techniques and problem-specific results, encouraging a fruitful exchange of ideas among disparate engineering specialities.
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