Evaluation of the public policy impacts on Monkeypox in Brazil

IF 1.5 4区社会学 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Evaluation and Program Planning Pub Date : 2024-02-24 DOI:10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2024.102414

Carlos Jefferson de Melo Santos , Angelo Marcio Oliveira Sant’Anna

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Abstract

Brazil ranked third in the number of Monkeypox infected worldwide in early September 2022 and eighth in multiple deaths. Brazilian Ministry of Health prepared a public policy to face the smallpox outbreak. This paper aims to analyze the governmental public policy’ impacts on Monkeypox using survival analysis. The information in the database was collected from epidemiological bulletins on the official websites of the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization (WHO). The survival analysis with parametric statistical analysis, semiparametric with Cox regression, and nonparametric analysis were used. The inference of causality was perceived by the impact caused by the national public policy with the proportional reduction in the number of cases in the treatment group (Chi-sq = 117.783, p < 0.001), contrary to what was perceived in the control group, as well as survival about the time of the states that elaborated their plans based on what was made available by the government. The need to evaluate government projects should be within the scope of project management in Brazilian states and provide for more assertive decision-making in the fight against smallpox

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评估公共政策对巴西猴痘的影响

2022 年 9 月初，巴西的猴痘感染人数在全球排名第三，死亡人数在全球排名第八。巴西卫生部制定了应对天花爆发的公共政策。本文旨在利用生存分析法分析政府公共政策对猴痘的影响。数据库中的信息来自巴西卫生部和世界卫生组织（WHO）官方网站上的流行病学公告。使用了参数统计分析的生存分析、考克斯回归的半参数分析和非参数分析。推断因果关系的依据是国家公共政策的影响，即治疗组病例数按比例减少（Chi-sq = 117.783，p<0.001），与对照组的情况相反，以及根据政府提供的信息制定计划的各州的存活时间。对政府项目进行评估的必要性应纳入巴西各州的项目管理范围，并在防治天花的斗争中提供更加果断的决策。

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来源期刊

Evaluation and Program Planning SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

6.20%

发文量

112

期刊介绍： Evaluation and Program Planning is based on the principle that the techniques and methods of evaluation and planning transcend the boundaries of specific fields and that relevant contributions to these areas come from people representing many different positions, intellectual traditions, and interests. In order to further the development of evaluation and planning, we publish articles from the private and public sectors in a wide range of areas: organizational development and behavior, training, planning, human resource development, health and mental, social services, mental retardation, corrections, substance abuse, and education.