{"title":"Forecasting regional industrial production with novel high-frequency electricity consumption data","authors":"Robert Lehmann, Sascha Möhrle","doi":"10.1002/for.3116","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we study the predictive power of electricity consumption data for regional economic activity. Using unique high-frequency electricity consumption data from industrial firms for the second-largest German state, the Free State of Bavaria, we conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find that electricity consumption is the best performing indicator in the nowcasting setup and has higher accuracy than other conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the weekly electricity consumption indicator also provides good predictions about industrial activity in the current month with only 2 weeks of information. Overall, our results indicate that regional electricity consumption is a promising avenue for measuring and forecasting regional economic activity.</p>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"43 6","pages":"1918-1935"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Forecasting","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.3116","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In this paper, we study the predictive power of electricity consumption data for regional economic activity. Using unique high-frequency electricity consumption data from industrial firms for the second-largest German state, the Free State of Bavaria, we conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find that electricity consumption is the best performing indicator in the nowcasting setup and has higher accuracy than other conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the weekly electricity consumption indicator also provides good predictions about industrial activity in the current month with only 2 weeks of information. Overall, our results indicate that regional electricity consumption is a promising avenue for measuring and forecasting regional economic activity.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Forecasting is an international journal that publishes refereed papers on forecasting. It is multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with any aspect of forecasting: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. A broad interpretation of the topic is taken with approaches from various subject areas, such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering and social sciences, all encouraged. Furthermore, the Journal welcomes a wide diversity of applications in such fields as business, government, technology and the environment. Of particular interest are papers dealing with modelling issues and the relationship of forecasting systems to decision-making processes.
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