Responses of insectivorous bats to climate change in Nepal

Abstract

The order Chiroptera includes 55 species in Nepal, which have been recorded within a wide range of elevation between 64 and 4154 m above sea level. Assessing the potential distribution ranges in present climatic scenarios and forecasting changes in distribution ranges in future climate have been adopted to predict likely adverse impacts on biodiversity and natural ecosystems. However, very few studies have assessed the impact of climate change on bats globally and locally. We assessed the current potential distribution ranges of six representative species of bats occurring in Nepal using species distribution models (SDMs) and predicted their responses in future climatic scenarios. The occurrences of the representative species of bats were projected with six to eight environmental variables under the different climatic scenarios; present, and socioeconomic pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for the years of 2050 and 2070 deploying maximum entropy modeling. We used Arc GIS 10.7.1 to calculate the distribution range, area, and elevation for the bat species. Among 18 uncorrelated bioclimatic variables eight variables significantly contributed to the SDMs. Among the six species, two showed a wider range of current distribution. Under the future climatic scenarios, distribution ranges and latitudinal and elevation shifting were found to be species specific. Future distribution ranges for two species are predicted to be constricted, but no significant changes are predicted for the others. Major parts of the current and future distribution ranges of the bat species lie outside the current protected areas of the country. Landscape level and species-specific conservation policies are necessary for bat conservation, and future surveys of bats should be targeted in western Nepal.