Falsifiable analog model predictions of W mass in CDF II and ATLAS

Abstract

The CDF II measurement of $W$ boson mass is at significant ($6.9\sigma$) tension with the Standard Model, and moderate ($4.0\sigma$) tension with recent results from ATLAS. Any attempt to interpret this as a signature of new physics requires high-precision, robust, falsifiable predictions. The Classical Analogue to the Standard Model In pseudo-Riemannian space–time (CASMIR) is an analogue model predicting $W$ and $Z$ boson masses of $80.3587(22)\mathrm{\text{GeV}}/c^2$ and $91.1877(35)\mathrm{\text{GeV}}/c^2$, respectively. During baryon collisions satisfying $\sqrt{s}<3.09\mathrm{\text{TeV}}$, CASMIR predicts a color-mediated enhancement of $W$ and $Z$ boson masses, becoming $80.4340(22)\mathrm{\text{GeV}}/c^2$ and $91.1922(35)\mathrm{\text{GeV}}/c^2$, respectively. The unenhanced masses are consistent with ATLAS data collected at $\sqrt{s}=7\mathrm{\text{TeV}}$, and the enhanced masses are consistent with CDF II data collected at $\sqrt{s}=1.96\mathrm{\text{TeV}}$. According to CASMIR, operation of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at center-of-mass energies small compared with $3.09\mathrm{\text{TeV}}$ but large enough for $W$ boson formation should permit ATLAS to replicate the result from CDF II.