Bifurcation Analysis of the Dynamics in COVID-19 Transmission through Living and Nonliving Media

Abstract

Transmission of COVID-19 occurs either through living media, such as interaction with a sufferer, or nonliving objects contaminated with the virus. Recovering sufferers and disinfectant spraying prevent interaction between people and virus become the treatment to overcome it. In this research, we formulate a new mathematical model as a three-dimensional ordinary differential equation system representing an interaction between viruses attached in nonliving media, susceptible, and infected subpopulations, including the treatment to investigate its effect. Disease-free, sterile-media endemic, and two nonsterile media endemic equilibriums exist in the model. The nonexistence of sterile-media equilibria interpreting the nonendemic condition is achieved by crossing the branch point bifurcation of the equilibria point as the infected subpopulation recovery rate increases. Continuation of the limit cycle generated at a Hopf bifurcation point as susceptible-coronavirus interaction prevention rate and period increase trigger two saddle-node bifurcations and a branch point bifurcation of cycle. Stable symmetric cycles with decreasing amplitude that make the dynamic of subpopulation easier to control start to be gained at the branch point bifurcation of cycle between the two saddle-node bifurcation points as the prevention rate increases. Some chaotic attractors which describe a complex and unpredictable pattern of the dynamic in the population are also found at inclination flip bifurcation by a continuation of a homoclinic orbit generated near the Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation point as the prevention rate increases while the recovery rate decreases. Increasing the recovery and prevention rate along with avoiding an increase of the prevention rate while the recovery rate decreases becomes the treatment to optimize the effort in overcoming COVID-19 transmission.