An intelligent stock trading decision system based on ensemble classifier through multimodal perturbation

Abstract

Candlesticks are widely used as an effective technical analysis tool in financial markets. Traditionally, different combinations of candlesticks have formed specific bullish/bearish patterns providing investors with increased opportunities for profitable trades. However, most patterns derived from subjective expertise without quantitative analysis. In this article, combining bullish/bearish patterns with ensemble learning, we present an intelligent system for making stock trading decisions. The Ensemble Classifier through Multimodal Perturbation (ECMP) is designed to generate a diverse set of precise base classifiers to further determine the candlestick patterns. It achieves this by: first, introducing perturbations to the sample space through bootstrap sampling; second, employing an attribute reduction algorithm based on neighborhood rough set theory to select relevant features; third, perturbing the feature space through random subspace selection. Ultimately, the trading decisions are guided by the classification outcomes of this procedure. To evaluate the proposed model, we apply it to empirical investigations within the context of the Chinese stock market. The results obtained from our experiments clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.