Introduction to the Australian Fire Danger Rating System†

Abstract

Background Fire danger rating systems are used daily across Australia to support fire management operations and communications to the general public regarding potential fire danger. Aims In this paper, we introduce the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS), providing a short historical account of fire danger rating in Australia as well as the requirements for an improved forecast system. Methods The AFDRS combines nationally consistent, spatially explicit fuel information with forecast weather and advanced fire behaviour models and knowledge to produce locally relevant ratings of fire behaviour potential. Key results A well-defined framework is essential for categorising and defining fire danger based on operational response, the potential for impact and observable characteristics of fire incidents. The AFDRS is modular, supporting continuous and incremental improvements and allowing upgrades to components in response to new science. Conclusions The AFDRS provides a new method to estimate fire danger based on the best available fire behaviour models, leading to potentially significant improvements in the way fire danger is calculated, forecast and interpreted. Implications The Australian Fire Danger Rating System was implemented in 2022, the most significant change to fire danger forecasting in Australia in more than 50 years.