Orochi impact formula: An evidence-based approach for quantifying the societal harm of County Lines drug supply

Abstract

The County Lines (CL) drug supply model is a rapidly increasing threat. Metropolitan Police Specialist Crime have developed a statistical formula, referred to as ‘Orochi impact formula’ for conservatively quantifying the quantity and monetary value of drugs sold per line. The novel formula, which uses known average daily consumption rates of Class A drug and customer demand telephony data, conservatively indicates deal line trade, systematically differentiating between deal lines to quantify the relative impact of each. This evidence-based approach has potential for supporting (i) prosecution of line holders, (ii) determining sentencing deterrents, and (iii) wider public information and knowledge exchange.