Incorporating burn heterogeneity with fuel load estimates may improve fire behaviour predictions in south-east Australian eucalypt forest

Abstract

Background Simulations of fire spread are vital for operational fire management and strategic risk planning. Aims To quantify burn heterogeneity effects on post-fire fuel loads, and test whether modifying fuel load estimates based on the fire severity and patchiness of the last fire improves the accuracy of simulations of subsequent fires. Methods We (1) measured fine fuels in eucalypt forests in south-eastern Australia following fires of differing severity; (2) modified post-fire fuel accumulation estimates based on our results; and (3) ran different fire simulations for a case-study area which was subject to a planned hazard reduction burn followed by a wildfire shortly thereafter. Key results Increasing fire severity resulted in increased reduction in bark fuels. In contrast, surface and elevated fuels were reduced by similar amounts following both low-moderate and high-extreme fire severity. Accounting for burn heterogeneity, and fire severity effects on bark, improved the accuracy of fire spread for a case study fire. Conclusions Integration of burn heterogeneity into post-burn fuel load estimates may substantially improve fire behaviour predictions. Implications Without accounting for burn heterogeneity, patchy burns of low severity may mean that risk estimations are incorrect. This has implications for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of planned burn programmes.