Horizontal Rates of Wetland Migration Appear Unlikely to Keep Pace with Shoreline Transgression under Conditions of 21st Century Accelerating Sea Level Rise along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern USA

Abstract

This investigation evaluated two fundamental assumptions of wetland inundation models designed to emulate landscape evolution and resiliency under conditions of sea level rise: that they can (1) migrate landward at the same rate as the transgressing shoreline and (2) immediately replace the plant community into which they are onlapping. Rates of wetland (e.g., marsh, mangrove) migration were culled from 11 study areas located in five regions of focus: Delaware Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Pamlico Sound, South Florida, and Northwest Florida. The average rate of marsh migration (n = 14) was 3.7 m yr−1. The average rate of South Florida mangrove migration (n = 4) was 38.0 m yr−1. The average rate of upland forest retreat (n = 4) was 3.4 m yr−1. Theoretical rates of shoreline transgression were calculated using site-specific landscape slope and scenario-based NOAA sea level rise elevations in 2050. Rates of shoreline transgression over the marsh landscape averaged 94 m yr−1. The average rate of shoreline transgression in the mangrove-dominated areas of South Florida was 153.2 m yr−1. The calculated rates of shoreline transgression were much faster than the observed horizontal marsh migration, and by 2050, the offset or gap between them averaged 2700 m and ranged between 292 and 5531 m. In South Florida, the gap average was 3516 m and ranged between 2766 m and 4563 m. At sites where both horizontal marsh migration and forest retreat rates were available, the distance or gap between them in 2050 averaged 47 m. Therefore, the results of this study are inconsistent with the two fundamental assumptions of many wetland inundation models and suggest that they may overestimate their resilience under conditions of 21st century accelerating sea level rise.