Bitcoin Potential after Brexit Referendum and Price Prediction

Abstract

In a world of economic volatility and geopolitical tensions, the crypto market is emerging as a opportunity for investors seeking alternatives to traditional assets. Bitcoin also experienced an extraordinary price increase, as an alternative to stocks and gold. The purpose of this study is to determine price movements before and after the 2016 financial crisis as well as bitcoin price predictions in 2024. This study uses secondary data on Bitcoin prices from January 2011 to January 2024. The methods used are ARCH and ARIMA to determine the volatility of the bitcoin price. For predictions using the category of predictors of Bitcoin historical data at the level. In this research divide into two calculations for volatility, from 2011 until 2016 the best model was the ARIMA model, while after 2016 until 2024 the best model was the ARCH. After 2016 until now, there are many phenomena such as uncertain global conditions such as the China-US trade war and British Exit (Brexit). The conclusion on this research about the price of one Bitcoin coin in 2024 February until April from 43,075 to 44,066 or uptrend.