Climate change and hydropower resilience in Nepal: an integrated modeling approach in the Madi River Basin

IF 17.7 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-03-09 DOI:10.2166/h2oj.2024.110
Pragya Pokharel, R. K. Regmi
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Abstract

Responding to Nepal's hydropower sector's vulnerability to climate change, this study investigates its impact on energy security, focusing on the Madi River Basin's snow-fed river systems. This study conducted a rigorous analysis of the basin's historical and future hydroclimatic trends, using the linear scaling method to evaluate and correct inherent biases in 13 GCMs, resulting in the selection of 6 BCMs with above-satisfactory performance. Future projections reveal an increase in annual precipitation across all timeframes with a higher increment in SSP585 by the end of the century, and a temperature rise ranging from 1.8 to 3.5 °C from the baseline in the far future under moderate- to high-emission scenarios. These hydroclimatic projections are then forced into the calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model with very good performance (both R2 and NSE greater than 0.8). The streamflow projection demonstrates an overall increasing trend, marked by significant flow reduction in early months and pronounced monsoon peaks. The analysis of three distinct hydropower projects reveals unique challenges and opportunities, underscoring the heterogeneous nature of projects and the need for location-specific planning and strategic management. This study provides crucial insights for sustainable development in renewable energy, laying the foundation for future research and policy in similar hydroclimatic settings.
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尼泊尔的气候变化与水电适应能力:马迪河流域的综合建模方法
针对尼泊尔水电行业易受气候变化影响的问题,本研究调查了气候变化对能源安全的影响,重点是马迪河流域的雪水河流系统。本研究对该流域的历史和未来水文气候趋势进行了严格分析,使用线性比例法评估并纠正了 13 个全球气候模型的固有偏差,最终选择了 6 个性能高于满意度的 BCM。未来预测显示,到本世纪末,所有时间段的年降水量都会增加,SSP585 的增量更高;在中度至高度排放情景下,远期气温将比基线上升 1.8 至 3.5 ℃。然后将这些水文气候预测结果强制导入经过校准的水土评估工具(SWAT)模型,结果表明该模型性能非常好(R2 和 NSE 均大于 0.8)。河水流量预测显示出总体增长趋势,其特点是早期月份流量显著减少,季风峰值明显。对三个不同水电项目的分析揭示了独特的挑战和机遇,强调了项目的异质性以及针对具体地点进行规划和战略管理的必要性。这项研究为可再生能源的可持续发展提供了重要启示,为今后在类似水文气候环境下开展研究和制定政策奠定了基础。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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