Predicting Personal Exposure to PM2.5 Using Different Determinants and Machine Learning Algorithms in Two Megacities, China

Abstract

The primary aim of this study is to explore the utility of machine learning algorithms for predicting personal PM_2.5 exposures of elderly participants and to evaluate the effect of individual variables on model performance. Personal PM_2.5 was measured on five consecutive days across seasons in 66 retired adults in Beijing (BJ) and Nanjing (NJ), China. The potential predictors were extracted from routine monitoring data (ambient PM_2.5 concentrations and meteorological factors), basic questionnaires (personal and household characteristics), and time-activity diary (TAD). Prediction models were developed based on either traditional multiple linear regression (MLR) or five advanced machine learning methods. Our results revealed that personal PM_2.5 exposures were well predicted by both MLR and machine learning models with predictors extracted from routine monitoring data, which was indicated by the high nested cross-validation (CV) R² ranging from 0.76 to 0.88. The addition of predictors from either the questionnaire or TAD did not improve predictive accuracy for all algorithms. The ambient PM_2.5 concentrations were the most important predictor. Overall, the random forest, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting algorithms outperformed the reference MLR method. Compared with the traditional MLR approach, the CV R² of the RF model increased up to 7% (from 0.82 ± 0.13 to 0.88 ± 0.10), while the RMSE reduced up to 18% (from 19.8 ± 5.4 to 16.3 ± 4.5) in BJ.