Analysis of progress in improving the prediction accuracy of Celestial Pole coordinates over the past 16 years

Abstract

The prediction of the Earth’s rotation parameters, including the coordinates of the celestial pole (precession-nutation angles), is necessary for many practical applications. This work is devoted to the study of changes in the accuracy of the prediction of precession-nutation angles over time over the past 16 years. This study was conducted on the basis of real predictions computed in 2007–2022 at the U.S. Naval Observatory, which serves as the Center of Rapid Service and Predictions of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), and at the Pulkovo Observatory. As a result, it turned out that the accuracy of IERS predictions has improved significantly over time, whereas there is no obvious improvement in the accuracy of predictions of the Pulkovo Observatory. For both analysis centers, there is a noticeable decrease in the dependence of prediction errors on its length. It can also be concluded that the predictions of the Pulkovo predictions are more accurate.