Forecasting the effect of HIV-targeted interventions on the age distribution of people with HIV in Kenya.

IF 3.4 2区医学 Q3 IMMUNOLOGY AIDS Pub Date : 2024-07-15 Epub Date: 2024-04-09 DOI:10.1097/QAD.0000000000003895

Melissa C Schnure, Parastu Kasaie, David W Dowdy, Becky L Genberg, Emily A Kendall, Anthony T Fojo

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Abstract

Objectives: To provide accurate forecasts of the age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) in Kenya from 2025 to 2040.

Design: Development of a compartmental model of HIV in Kenya, calibrated to historical estimates of HIV epidemiology.

Methods: We forecasted changes in population size and age distribution of new HIV infections and PWH under the status quo and under scale-up of HIV services.

Results: Without scale-up, new HIV infections were forecasted to fall from 34 000 (28 000-41 000) in 2,025 to 29 000 (15 000-57 000) in 2,040; the percentage of new infections occurring among persons over 30 increased from 33% (20-50%) to 40% (24-62%). The median age of PWH increased from 39 years (38-40) in 2025 to 43 years (39-46) in 2040, and the percentage of PWH over age 50 increased from 26% (23-29%) to 34% (26-43%). Under the full intervention scenario, new infections were forecasted to fall to 6,000 (3,000-12 000) in 2,040. The percentage of new infections occurring in people over age 30 increased to 52% (34-71%) in 2,040, and there was an additional shift in the age structure of PWH [forecasted median age of 46 (43-48) and 40% (33-47%) over age 50].

Conclusion: PWH in Kenya are forecasted to age over the next 15 years; improvements to the HIV care continuum are expected to contribute to the growing proportion of older PWH.

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预测针对艾滋病毒的干预措施对艾滋病毒感染者年龄分布的影响：肯尼亚案例研究。

目标抗逆转录病毒疗法的推广和预期寿命的延长导致了艾滋病病毒感染者（PWH）的老龄化：设计：肯尼亚决策者需要准确预测艾滋病感染者的年龄分布，以便为未来政策提供依据：我们建立了一个肯尼亚艾滋病模型，并根据艾滋病流行病学的历史估计值进行了校准。我们预测了在维持现状和扩大艾滋病服务规模的情况下，新增艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病毒感染者的人口数量和年龄分布的变化：在不扩大服务规模的情况下，艾滋病毒新感染病例预计将从 2025 年的 34,000 例 [28,000-41,000 例] 下降到 2040 年的 29,000 例 [15,000-57,000 例]；30 岁以上人群的新感染病例比例从 33% [20-50%] 上升到 40% [24-62%]。感染者的年龄中位数从 2025 年的 39 岁 [38-40] 上升到 2040 年的 43 岁 [39-46]，50 岁以上感染者的比例从 26% [23-29%] 上升到 34% [26-43%]。在全面干预方案下，预计 2040 年新感染病例将降至 6,000 例 [3,000-12,000 例]。到 2040 年，30 岁以上人群的新增感染率将增至 52% [34-71%]，感染者的年龄结构也将发生变化（预测中位年龄为 46 岁 [43-48]，50 岁以上人群占 40% [33-47%]）：结论：预计在未来 15 年内，肯尼亚的艾滋病毒感染者将逐渐老龄化；艾滋病毒持续护理的改善将有助于老年艾滋病毒感染者比例的增长。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

AIDS 医学-病毒学

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

5.30%

发文量

478

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Publishing the very latest ground breaking research on HIV and AIDS. Read by all the top clinicians and researchers, AIDS has the highest impact of all AIDS-related journals. With 18 issues per year, AIDS guarantees the authoritative presentation of significant advances. The Editors, themselves noted international experts who know the demands of your work, are committed to making AIDS the most distinguished and innovative journal in the field. Submitted articles undergo a preliminary review by the editor. Some articles may be returned to authors without further consideration. Those being considered for publication will undergo further assessment and peer-review by the editors and those invited to do so from a reviewer pool.