Observed heatwaves characteristics and variability over Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Heat waves are prolonged periods of excessively hot weather, which can have significant impacts on human health, agriculture, and the environment. Climate change has been linked to an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves. As the global average temperature rises, heat waves are becoming more common and more severe. The Arabian Peninsula is warming at a faster rate as compared to the globe in the recent decades. In this paper, the mild, moderate, severe, and extreme heat waves defined by 85th, 90th, 95th and 99th percentile, respectively, are analyzed over Saudi Arabia using historical daily maximum and minimum temperature observations for the period 1985–2021. The large number of mild heat waves are observed all over Saudi Arabia while extreme heat waves are dominant in the northwestern region. Moderate and severe heat waves are observed less in both the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf coastal regions. The heat waves are intense in the northern and central areas as compared to other regions of the country. Heat wave frequency, intensity and length in Saudi Arabia are in increasing trends, along with the increase in the heat wave season length. Heat wave frequency and intensity are largely observed during the ENSO La Nina and neutral phases along with NAO negative phase as well as IOD negative and neutral phases. However, further investigation is required to see the occurrence of heat waves in different climate zones over Saudi Arabia at various seasons and their teleconnection to large-scale circulations.