Evaluating impacts of environmental stress and bioactive chemicals on the North Carolina blue crab population: An individual-based model

Abstract

Objective

Recent estimates of the North Carolina blue crab Callinectes sapidus stock found that the stock is overfished and overfishing is occurring. Threats outlined in the 2018 stock assessment include climate change and estrogenic endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EEDCs). The objective of this study was to use an individual-based modeling approach to simulate the long-term effects of climate change and EEDCs on the North Carolina blue crab stock.

Methods

To do this, we built an individual-based model that simulated the life history of individual blue crabs, including but not limited to growth, reproduction, and mortality. We then tested our population of blue crabs against 30 different combinations of temperature and EEDC scenarios over 50 years to determine the long-term effects on the population.

Result

Our simulations suggested that the North Carolina blue crab population may be relatively resilient to climate change-related temperature shifts but that there may be significant impacts at the population level as summer temperatures become more extreme. Endocrine-disrupting chemical effects resulted in an alternative stable state of lower catch or the total extinction of the population.

Conclusion

These results suggest that management strategy changes may be necessary as temperatures become more extreme in the region. In addition, more research is necessary to fully understand the effects of EEDCs on blue crabs and other crustaceans at the individual and population level.