Exit-Voice Dynamics: How do Hong Kong People Respond to Democratic Backsliding?

Abstract

Does people's greater intention to migrate deter them from participating in protests? How does protest participation shape intention to migrate? How does the relationship between migration intention and protest change amidst Hong Kong's transition to authoritarianism? Drawing upon Hirschman's exit-voice theory, this study examines the relationship between protest and migration intentions against the changing context across time. We use a time-series dataset on Hong Kong's anti-extradition movement of late 2019 for our analysis. The results show that people who have greater intention to migrate are more likely to participate in protest, but this association wanes as state repression intensifies. We find that migration intention indicates the psychological preparedness to leave, and that the fallback plan emboldens people to speak out. Yet, as the state becomes more repressive, people who intend to migrate are also sensitive to the signals about the repression, which thus attenuates protest participation. This also explains the phenomenon that more active protestors intend to leave to escape repression. People with radical political affiliations are more inclined to emigrate but this relationship attenuates over time, indicating the importance of group effects in curbing migration intentions.