{"title":"Establishment and Diagnostic Value of an Early Prediction Model for Acute Pancreatitis Complicated With Acute Kidney Injury","authors":"Cheng Chi, Xiaojing Song, Yong Ma, Chunyu Wang, Jihong Zhu","doi":"10.1097/mpa.0000000000002325","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n \n To establish an early prediction model for acute pancreatitis (AP) complicated with acute kidney injury (AKI) and evaluate its diagnostic value.\n \n \n \n AP patients were recruited from the Emergency Department at Peking University People's Hospital in 2021 and stratified into AKI and control (no AKI) groups. Their clinical data were analyzed. The risk for AKI development was determined using logistic analyses to establish a risk prediction model, whose diagnostic value was analyzed using a receiver operating characteristic curve.\n \n \n \n There was no significant difference in the basic renal function between the AKI (n = 79) and control (n = 179) groups. The increased triglyceride glucose index (odds ratio [OR], 2.613; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.324–5.158; P = 0.006), age (OR, 1.076; 95% CI, 1.016–1.140; P = 0.013), and procalcitonin (OR, 1.377; 95% CI, 1.096–1.730, P = 0.006) were associated with AKI development. A model was established for prediction of AKI (sensitivity 79.75%, specificity 96.65%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.856 which was superior to the Ranson, Bedside Index for Severity in AP, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores (0.856 vs 0.691 vs 0.745 vs 0.705).\n \n \n \n The prediction model based on age, triglyceride glucose, and procalcitonin is valuable for the prediction of AP-related AKI.\n","PeriodicalId":19733,"journal":{"name":"Pancreas","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pancreas","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/mpa.0000000000002325","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
To establish an early prediction model for acute pancreatitis (AP) complicated with acute kidney injury (AKI) and evaluate its diagnostic value.
AP patients were recruited from the Emergency Department at Peking University People's Hospital in 2021 and stratified into AKI and control (no AKI) groups. Their clinical data were analyzed. The risk for AKI development was determined using logistic analyses to establish a risk prediction model, whose diagnostic value was analyzed using a receiver operating characteristic curve.
There was no significant difference in the basic renal function between the AKI (n = 79) and control (n = 179) groups. The increased triglyceride glucose index (odds ratio [OR], 2.613; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.324–5.158; P = 0.006), age (OR, 1.076; 95% CI, 1.016–1.140; P = 0.013), and procalcitonin (OR, 1.377; 95% CI, 1.096–1.730, P = 0.006) were associated with AKI development. A model was established for prediction of AKI (sensitivity 79.75%, specificity 96.65%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.856 which was superior to the Ranson, Bedside Index for Severity in AP, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores (0.856 vs 0.691 vs 0.745 vs 0.705).
The prediction model based on age, triglyceride glucose, and procalcitonin is valuable for the prediction of AP-related AKI.
建立急性胰腺炎并发急性肾损伤(AKI)的早期预测模型,并评估其诊断价值。 研究人员于 2021 年从北京大学人民医院急诊科招募急性胰腺炎患者,并将其分为急性肾损伤组和对照组(无急性肾损伤)。分析了他们的临床数据。利用逻辑分析法确定了发生 AKI 的风险,建立了风险预测模型,并利用接收者操作特征曲线分析了该模型的诊断价值。 AKI 组(79 人)和对照组(179 人)的基本肾功能无明显差异。甘油三酯葡萄糖指数增加(几率比[OR],2.613;95% 置信区间[CI],1.324-5.158;P = 0.006)、年龄(OR,1.076;95% CI,1.016-1.140;P = 0.013)和降钙素原(OR,1.377;95% CI,1.096-1.730;P = 0.006)与 AKI 的发生相关。建立了 AKI 预测模型(灵敏度 79.75%,特异性 96.65%)。接收者操作特征曲线下面积为 0.856,优于 Ranson、AP 床边严重程度指数和急性生理学和慢性健康评估 II 评分(0.856 vs 0.691 vs 0.745 vs 0.705)。 基于年龄、甘油三酯血糖和降钙素原的预测模型对预测 AP 相关性 AKI 很有价值。
期刊介绍:
Pancreas provides a central forum for communication of original works involving both basic and clinical research on the exocrine and endocrine pancreas and their interrelationships and consequences in disease states. This multidisciplinary, international journal covers the whole spectrum of basic sciences, etiology, prevention, pathophysiology, diagnosis, and surgical and medical management of pancreatic diseases, including cancer.