Dynamic models for developing reference scenarios of energy system in the low-carbon transition

Abstract

The proposed study is aimed at the development of dynamic input-output models in relation to energy development systems. The main task is to find optimal scenarios, defined as sequences of optimal balances between production and capital investment. These models are rooted in Leontief's conceptual concept of input-output, which emphasizes the timing of the introduction of new production systems. The article discusses the economic interpretation and mathematical conditions of intersectoral models, and examines their application to problems related to energy. The model uses the concept of balanced equilibrium growth, in which the ratio of consumption to net release is the same for all resources, and the reserve of at least one resource is fully utilized. The growth rate of the system is the most important parameter that determines the trajectory of balanced growth. Solving the system of inequalities yields balanced growth trajectories in which the dominant root and the associated vector of characteristics plays a key role. A balanced equilibrium growth rate has the properties of a minimax with the presence of a saddle point, which indicates its importance in achieving market equilibrium while preventing a reduction in inventories. The practical application of the model is described. The results of calculations of pessimistic, reference and optimistic scenarios of electricity production in the IPS of Ukraine are presented. Official statistical information and economic forecasts are used, and various restrictions are taken into account. The model aims to minimize the total cost of electricity generation while respecting environmental and operational constraints. The proposed model provides a comprehensive basis for understanding the dynamics of resource reserves, consumption and growth of electricity production of the IPS of Ukraine. It offers decision-makers a valuable tool to optimize electricity generation strategies, taking into account a range of scenarios and constraints, for the sustainable and cost-effective operation of the energy system. Keywords: Dynamic input-output models, optimal scenarios, balanced equilibrium growth, growth rate of the system.