Assessment of the energy saving potential by regions of Ukraine (methodology and predictive assessment)

Abstract

The purpose of the research is the develop methods and tools for long-term forecasting of electricity consumption based on the improved comprehensive method of demand for energy resources, taking into account the peculiarities of electricity use in the regions of Ukraine and their impact on the country's electricity consumption. The scientific novelty of the obtained results is the consideration of the technological potential of regional electricity conservation by means of electricity conservation measures typical for the regions. Thus, a complex method, a mathematical model, and a methodology for determining the forecast demand for electricity for three hierarchical levels of the economy were further developed. In these levels, the following groups of indicators are distinguished for forecasting electricity consumption: country, region, local level, or types of economic activity in the region. The formed three-level model (level I, level II, level III) takes into account both the general potential of electricity conservation (from structural and technological changes) in the country as a whole, and peculiarities at the regional level (region, city, village, settlement, territorial community) in certain (selected) types of economic activity in production (service provision). In the course of the work, material was collected on energy-saving measures in energy-intensive industries and forecasts of the development of certain types of production and service provision. These estimates determined the technological potential of energy saving in the regions. The 12 regions with the largest electricity consumption are highlighted, and the other regions are combined. In the region, the potential of electricity saving was distributed according to the structure of electricity consumption according to the types of economic activity inherent in this region. The technological potential of electricity conservation in the country will reach 10.35 billion kWh. Keywords: region, electricity-saving, electricity-saving potential, forecasting, energy efficiency, electricity.