Analysis of Rainfall Prediction in Lampung Province using the Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstract

This research aims to predict annual rainfall in Lampung Province using the Exponential Smoothing method. The data used in this research is annual rainfall data from January 2010 to December 2022. The 156 months data rainfall is from the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) of Lampung Province. The results of data analysis state that annual rainfall in Lampung Province contains a seasonal pattern. The results of this research state that the Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) Holt-Winter’s method is a suitable model for predicting annual rainfall data in Lampung Province because it has a small Sum Square Error (SSE) value 1152255 with the parameters ? , ?, and ? respectively being 0.2158, 0.0298, and 0.2380. Forecasting using the Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) Holt-Winter’s method shows that rainfall in Lampung Province will increase in the next year.