Analysis of the Relationship Between Futures Prices and Mandi Spot Prices of Spices in India

Abstract

For this study, we used secondary data and applied various statistical methods, including the compound growth rate, ADF test, seasonality analysis, Johansen's cointegration test, and the Granger causality test. The findings revealed a positive trend in the prices of selected spices, indicating a significant growth rate for both prices and arrivals. Seasonality in prices was observed, particularly during the peak season. The price series were found to be cointegrated at a significance level of 1 per cent, and a uni-directional causality was identified in both spices. It suggested that futures prices play a dominant role in the price discovery process. The study recommends improving warehouse structures and storage chambers to enhance the retention capacity of farmers, thereby emphasizing the importance of proper storage facilities.