Examining the business cycle of the tourism industry in Mexico at the state level using the Markov Switching Model (1992 to 2017)

Laura Sour
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Abstract

Despite being a popular tourist destination, state-level research on the business cycle in Mexico's tourism industry is lacking. This study aims to answer three research questions: Are the growth stages of the international tourism market similar across states? Are the growth stages of the domestic tourism market similar among entities? Is there a relation between the economic cycle of the international tourism market and the domestic market? We use the Markov Switching Model to estimate the business cycle of the tourism industry in each Mexican state from 1992 to 2017. We identify the most attractive states for international and domestic tourists. Notably, eleven of the coefficients belong to the economic cycle of the foreign tourist market, indicating a greater economic impact compared to the domestic market. The results show that each state has its own business cycle, requiring individual projections for each market. This information is relevant for tourism planners and policymakers to address the challenges posed by the SDGs.
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利用马尔科夫转换模型考察墨西哥州级旅游业的商业周期(1992 年至 2017 年)
尽管墨西哥是热门旅游目的地,但却缺乏对墨西哥旅游业商业周期的州级研究。本研究旨在回答三个研究问题:各州国际旅游市场的增长阶段是否相似?各州国内旅游市场的增长阶段是否相似?国际旅游市场的经济周期与国内市场是否存在关系?我们使用马尔科夫转换模型来估计墨西哥各州从 1992 年到 2017 年旅游业的商业周期。我们确定了对国际和国内游客最具吸引力的州。值得注意的是,有 11 个系数属于外国游客市场的经济周期,表明与国内市场相比,外国游客市场的经济影响更大。结果表明,每个州都有自己的商业周期,需要对每个市场进行单独预测。这些信息对于旅游业规划者和决策者应对可持续发展目标带来的挑战具有重要意义。
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