Cognitive Modeling as a Forecasting Tool

Abstract

Under the current geopolitical conditions and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, there is an objective need to formulate a strategic development plan for the economy as a whole and for specific sectors of the economy. Various methods and tools can be used for strategic planning. One of the methods of strategic planning is the program-targeted method of planning, which has proved to be an effective method of foresight. It is possible to speak about failures of planning activities, but these failures were related not only to shortcomings and application of science-based planning methods but also to the efficiency of the managerial apparatus, which took decisions. It should be noted that it was in the period when science-based planning methods were applied that our country managed to form and develop industrial production in various sectors, and the issue of import substitution did not arise then, as all the stages of the product life cycle were represented at all the enterprises. Currently, the country is facing the problem of strategic development in the context of the imposed economic sanctions. The volume of sanctions is increasing day by day and one can only speculate on the future restrictions imposed. Therefore, there is a need to forecast activities at the level of the whole country, individual industries, and enterprises. One such method is cognitive modeling based on fuzzy logic. This approach involves the use of cognitive principles and methods to understand the behavior of individuals in the system, as well as the interactions and feedback loops between the various components. The purpose of this paper is to retrospectively analyze the application of the cognitive method to modeling. Information systems that have been developed in our country to implement the tasks of cognitive modeling are reviewed, and an assessment of existing software products is made. Also, theoretical materials on cognitive approach in modeling are presented in order to understand the application of this toolkit for modeling socioeconomic systems using elements of fuzzy logic.