Agile effort estimation in Colombia: An assessment and opportunities for improvement

Abstract

Effort estimation is fundamental for the development of software projects and critical to their success. The objective of this paper is to understand how Colombian agile practitioners perform effort estimates and to identify opportunities for improvement based on these results. For this purpose, we conducted an exploratory survey study using as instrument an on-line questionnaire answered by agile practitioners with experience in effort estimation. Data was collected from 60 agile practitioners and the main findings are: (1) Agile practitioners prefer non-algorithmic estimation techniques, mainly those based on Expert Judgment. (2) Most of the respondents perceive that their estimates have a medium accuracy level; however, in most cases, no formal analysis of the accuracy level is carried out. (3) The determining effort predictors/cost drivers are characteristics of the project team (size, experience, and skills) and attributes of the software to be built (complexity, type, and domain). (4) The use of datasets for estimation is not common; proprietary datasets predominate and are used for productivity comparisons within the company. (5) Most of the results of related studies are comparable with ours; however, there are significant differences in terms of the roles involved and the techniques used in the effort estimation process. Based on the results and findings of the survey, we identified key opportunities to improve estimation accuracy through (1) software measurement standardization, (2) use of effort datasets, (3) implementation of techniques for measuring accuracy levels, and (4) knowledge management in effort estimation.