Comprehensive evaluation and spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

IF 3.9 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.cjpre.2024.03.007

Xin Li , Shuyi Zhang , Rongxi Ren , Yafei Wang

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Abstract

To clarify the connotations and extensions of urban resilience, this study focuses on the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle with 16 cities as research subjects. A comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed to measure the resilience of each city from 2003 to 2020. The spatial-temporal evolution characteristics were analyzed using Kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse, and spatial Markov chain analysis, and the spatial Tobit model was introduced to discover the influencing factors. The results indicate the following: ① Urban resilience in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle displays an upward trend, with the center of gravity moving to the southwest, and the polarization phenomenon intensifying. ② The urban resilience level in a region has certain spatial and geographical dependence, while the probability of urban resilience transfer differs in adjacent cities with different resilience levels. ③ Urban centrality, economic scale, openness level, and financial development promote urban resilience, whereas government scale significantly inhibits it. Finally, this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions to improve the urban resilience of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.

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成渝经济圈城市韧性综合评价及时空演变特征

为厘清城市韧性的内涵与外延，本研究以成渝经济圈 16 个城市为研究对象。通过构建综合评价指标体系，测度2003-2020年各城市的韧性。利用核密度估计、标准差椭圆、空间马尔可夫链分析等方法分析了时空演化特征，并引入空间 Tobit 模型发现了影响因素。结果表明成渝经济圈城市韧性呈上升趋势，重心向西南方向移动，两极分化现象加剧。区域内城市韧性水平具有一定的空间地域依赖性，不同韧性水平的相邻城市城市韧性转移概率不同。城市中心度、经济规模、开放水平和金融发展促进城市韧性的提升，而政府规模则明显抑制城市韧性的提升。最后，本文提出了提高成渝经济圈城市韧性的对策建议。

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来源期刊

Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

4.30

自引率

1.10%

发文量

791

审稿时长

79 days

期刊介绍： The Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment (CJPRE) is a peer-reviewed international academic journal that publishes original research in the fields of economic, population, resource, and environment studies as they relate to sustainable development. The journal aims to address and evaluate theoretical frameworks, capability building initiatives, strategic goals, ethical values, empirical research, methodologies, and techniques in the field. CJPRE began publication in 1992 and is sponsored by the Chinese Society for Sustainable Development (CSSD), the Research Center for Sustainable Development of Shandong Province, the Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21 (ACCA21), and Shandong Normal University. The Chinese title of the journal was inscribed by the former Chinese leader, Mr. Deng Xiaoping. Initially focused on China's advances in sustainable development, CJPRE now also highlights global developments from both developed and developing countries.