Development of an Ultrasound-based Nomogram for Predicting Pathologic Complete Response and Axillary Response in Node-Positive Patients with Triple- Negative Breast Cancer

Abstract

Background

The accurate prediction of pathological complete response (pCR) in the breast and axillary lymph nodes (ALN) before neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is of utmost importance for the development of treatment strategies. We aim to construct a nomogram on ultrasound (US) and clinical-pathologic factors to predict breast and ALN pCR in node-positive triple-negative breast cancers (TNBCs).

Methods

Patients identified with TNBCs from institution 1 (n = 328) were used for training cohort and those from institution 2 (n = 192) were for validation cohort. US was conducted before and after NAC, and characteristics were obtained from medical records. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis were performed to identify US and clinical-pathologic factors associated with breast and ALN pCR in the training cohort. The assessment of predictive performance was conducted using the receiving operating characteristic curve (ROC), discrimination, and calibration.

Results

Overall, 34.6% of patients achieved breast pCR and 48.1% of patients achieved ALN pCR. The nomogram 1 used for predicting pCR in the breast (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.88) outperformed the clinical (AUC, 0.73; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.78) and US models (AUC, 0.79; 95% CI: 0.74, 0.83). The nomogram 2 used for predicting pCR in the axllia (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI: 0.78, 0.87) also outperformed the clinical (AUC, 0.64; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.69) and US models (AUC, 0.80; 95% CI: 0.75, 0.84). The calibration curve and discrimination curve indicate that the nomogram has good calibration performance and clinical applicability.

Conclusion

The nomogram showed promising predictive performance for predicting breast and ALN pCR in patients with TNBCs.