Quantifying the influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation on rainfall extremes during the northeast monsoon season of the Philippines

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the extreme rainfall events across 11 eastern coastal stations during the northeast monsoon season (November to March) over the Philippines from 1979 to 2019. The contribution of synoptic systems to these extreme rainfall events such as tropical cyclones (TCs), low-pressure systems (LPS), cold surges (CS), and other disturbances as they coincide with a strong and active MJO were quantified. The results show that the probability of extreme rainfall occurrence increases first to as much as 20% in the southernmost stations in Phase 4. Then, it increases to more than 60% in central-eastern stations in Phase 6. The extreme rainfall events were then classified into: MJO-only, TC-MJO, TC-nonMJO, LPS-MJO, LPS-nonMJO, CS-MJO, CS-nonMJO, and others. The percentage contribution of MJO only, TC-MJO, LPS-MJO, and CS-MJO to the total extreme rainfall events ranges from 9% to 16%, 0% to 3%, 2% to 4%, 1% to 9%, respectively. The relationship between MJO and flooding events in the Philippines was also examined. About 28 flood events or 266 flooding days were identified during the analysis period, wherein 50% of these events coincidentally occurred during strong and active phases of MJO.