Assessment of the locational potential of floating offshore wind energy in South Africa

Abstract

Expanding floating wind into new markets could support emission reduction targets in several national contexts. It furthers the need for adequate assessments to gain a full understanding of the technology’s potential in future markets. South Africa is a prime case study as it has seen limited industry and policy developments despite its huge technical potential for floating offshore wind (FOW). This paper assessed the locational potential of floating wind in South Africa through a three-phased approach that evaluated the key technical drivers/barriers of the technology, conducted a Geographic Information System analysis (GIS) using ArcMap 10.8 to exclude unsuitable sites based on a predetermined exclusion criteria (including marine protected zones, underwater cables, major oil and gas deposits, etc.), and estimated the total harvestable capacity in the feasible sites. The study found that 2% (246,105.4 km2) of South Africa’s entire Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is suitable for hosting floating wind turbines, with a potential to generate a maximum of 142.61 GW of floating wind power. Although the Western Cape province holds the highest potential (80.52 GW) for floating wind in the country, the Eastern Cape region, with a locational potential of 20.04 GW, is considered most suitable for early-stage developments due to the availability of grid connection points, limited marine traffic, and proximity to appropriate port facilities. Future work can conduct techno-economic assessments to evaluate the technical and economic implications of developing floating wind in distinct sites in the country’s EEZ.