Assessing the generalization of forecasting ability of machine learning and probabilistic models for complex climate characteristics

Abstract

Climate changes and global warming increase risk of recurrent extreme and complex climatic features. It necessitates accurate modeling and forecasting of climate phenomena for sustainable development goals. However, machine learning algorithms and advanced statistical models are extensively employed to analyze complex data and make predictions related to climate phenomena. It is important to have comprehensive knowledge to use these models and consider their potential implications. This study aims to evaluate and compare some popular machine learning and probabilistic methods by analyzing various time series indices associated with precipitation and temperature. For application, time series data of Standardized Precipitation Temperature Index (SPTI), Standardized Temperature Index (STI), Standardized Compound Drought and Heat Index (SCDHI), and Biased Diminished Weighted Regional Drought Index (BDWRDI) are used from various meteorological regions of Pakistan. The performance of each algorithm is compared using Residual Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Average Error (MAE). The outcomes associated with this research indicate a higher preference of neural networks over machine learning methods in the training sets. However, the efficiency varies from model to model, indicator to indicator, time scale to time scale, and location to location during the testing phase. The most appropriate models are found by considering a list of candidates forecasting models and investigating the performance of each model.