Characteristics of Postoperative Heart Failure in Older Hip Fractures Patients Combined with Coronary Heart Disease and Construction of a Prediction Model of Nomogram, a Retrospective Cohort Study
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Abstract
Introduction: Older patients combined with coronary heart disease (CHD) develop acute heart failure (AHF) after hip fracture surgery is common, and this study aimed to investigate the risk factors of postoperative AHF in older hip fracture patients and to construct a nomogram prediction model. Methods: We retrospectively collected older hip fracture patients with CHD who underwent hip fracture surgery at the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2017 to December 2021. We divided them into a training set and a validation set. We collected the demographic data, laboratory indicators and imaging examination results. We identified risk factors for postoperative AHF and used R language software to establish a nomogram prediction model, plot ROC curves, calibration curves and DCA decision curves. Results: We retrospectively collected 1288 older hip fractures patients with CHD. After excluding 214 patients who did not meet the criteria, 1074 patients were included in our research and we divided them into the training set and the validation set. In the training set, a total of 346 (42.8%) patients developing postoperative AHF. Through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, we identified the risk factors for postoperative AHF and constructed a nomogram prediction model. The AUC of the prediction model is 0.778. The correction curve shows that the model has good consistency. The decision curve analysis shows that the model has good clinical practicality. Conclusion: There were 42.8% older patients combined with CHD develop postoperative AHF. Among them, fracture type, age, anemia at admission, combined with COPD, ASA ≥ 3, and preoperative waiting time > 3 days are risk factors for postoperative AHF. We constructed a nomogram prediction model that can effectively predict the risk of postoperative AHF in older hip fracture patients combined with CHD.
期刊介绍：
Clinical Interventions in Aging, is an online, peer reviewed, open access journal focusing on concise rapid reporting of original research and reviews in aging. Special attention will be given to papers reporting on actual or potential clinical applications leading to improved prevention or treatment of disease or a greater understanding of pathological processes that result from maladaptive changes in the body associated with aging. This journal is directed at a wide array of scientists, engineers, pharmacists, pharmacologists and clinical specialists wishing to maintain an up to date knowledge of this exciting and emerging field.
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