Ethnic fertility and exposure to armed conflict: the case of Sri Lanka

IF 4.1 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Review of Economics of the Household Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI:10.1007/s11150-024-09703-y
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Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of exposure to armed conflict on fertility in Sri Lanka. Using a difference-in-difference methodology, I find that exposure to civil war led to a reduction in female fertility in Sri Lanka, with evidence of an increased female age at marriage in high-conflict districts as a mechanism. The paper further focuses on ethnic disparities in demographic adjustments triggered by exposure to conflict. It determines if conflict altered the fertility patterns of the Sinhalese majority and the Sri Lankan Tamil minority differently. Estimates suggest that there is a differential in fertility adjustments of the two ethnic groups in response to conflict: the reduction in crude birth rate was significantly smaller for the Sri Lankan Tamils compared to the Sinhalese across various model specifications. The presence of an ethnic group-level replacement effect led to a lesser reduction in fertility for Sri Lankan Tamils. These results contribute to the literature on the impact of armed conflict and underscore the importance of studying demographic adjustments by sub-groups, specifically ethnicity in this context, as the intensity of adjustment often varies with the socio-political vulnerability of the group. Understanding these disparities is crucial as a sustained demographic differential has the potential to impact the ethnic composition of Sri Lanka and may further crystallize the ethnic divide in an already volatile political setting.

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种族生育率和武装冲突风险:斯里兰卡案例
摘要 本文研究了斯里兰卡武装冲突对生育率的影响。利用差分法,我发现内战导致斯里兰卡女性生育率下降,有证据表明高冲突地区女性结婚年龄提高是一种机制。本文进一步关注了冲突引发的人口调整中的种族差异。它确定了冲突是否以不同方式改变了僧伽罗多数群体和斯里兰卡泰米尔少数群体的生育模式。估计结果表明,两个族群在应对冲突时的生育率调整存在差异:在不同的模型规格中,斯里兰卡泰米尔人的粗出生率下降幅度明显小于僧伽罗人。族群层面替代效应的存在导致斯里兰卡泰米尔人生育率的下降幅度较小。这些结果为有关武装冲突影响的文献做出了贡献,并强调了研究亚群体(特别是在此背景下的种族)人口调整的重要性,因为调整的强度往往随群体的社会政治脆弱性而变化。了解这些差异至关重要,因为持续的人口差异有可能影响斯里兰卡的种族构成,并可能在本已动荡的政治环境中进一步固化种族鸿沟。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
3.90%
发文量
39
期刊介绍: The Review of Economics of the Household publishes high-quality empirical and theoretical research on the economic behavior and decision-making processes of single and multi-person households. The Review is not wedded to any particular models or methods. It welcomes both macro-economic and micro-level applications. Household decisions analyzed in this journal include ·         household production of human capital, health, nutrition/food, childcare, and eldercare, ·         well-being of persons living in households, issues of gender and power, ·         fertility and risky behaviors, ·         consumption, savings and wealth accumulation, ·         labor force participation and time use,·         household formation (including marriage, cohabitation and fertility) and dissolution,·         migration, intergenerational transfers,·         experiments involving households,·         religiosity and civility.The journal is particularly interested in policy-relevant economic analyses and equally interested in applications to countries at various levels of economic development. The Perspectives section covers articles on the history of economic thought and review articles. Officially cited as: Rev Econ Household
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