{"title":"Scoring probability model based on service landing location and ranking points in men’s professional tennis matches","authors":"Fumiya Shimizu, Eiji Konaka","doi":"10.1177/17479541241246184","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Service is regarded as the most crucial shot in tennis matches, and hence affects the outcome. This study aims to construct a mathematical model that expresses the scoring probability of service shots. Here, “scoring” means that the server wins points in subsequent rallies after a service. The explanatory variables are the service landing location and the ranking points of the players (logarithms of ranking points for the two players). The model construction method is a stepwise regression of the generalized linear model. The model is constructed using more than 110,000 service shots from Association of Tennis Professionals Tour tournaments of 2019. The model comprises four service situations: first/second and ad/deuce sides. The developed model reveals the following facts: in the first service, advantageous locations for the servers are not symmetric between the advantage and deuce sides. Higher-ranked players can win more points than lower-ranked players even if their shots land in easy locations, that is, in the middle of the service court.","PeriodicalId":47767,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching","volume":"71 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching","FirstCategoryId":"95","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/17479541241246184","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"教育学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Service is regarded as the most crucial shot in tennis matches, and hence affects the outcome. This study aims to construct a mathematical model that expresses the scoring probability of service shots. Here, “scoring” means that the server wins points in subsequent rallies after a service. The explanatory variables are the service landing location and the ranking points of the players (logarithms of ranking points for the two players). The model construction method is a stepwise regression of the generalized linear model. The model is constructed using more than 110,000 service shots from Association of Tennis Professionals Tour tournaments of 2019. The model comprises four service situations: first/second and ad/deuce sides. The developed model reveals the following facts: in the first service, advantageous locations for the servers are not symmetric between the advantage and deuce sides. Higher-ranked players can win more points than lower-ranked players even if their shots land in easy locations, that is, in the middle of the service court.
期刊介绍：
The International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching is a peer-reviewed, international, academic/professional journal, which aims to bridge the gap between coaching and sports science. The journal will integrate theory and practice in sports science, promote critical reflection of coaching practice, and evaluate commonly accepted beliefs about coaching effectiveness and performance enhancement. Open learning systems will be promoted in which: (a) sports science is made accessible to coaches, translating knowledge into working practice; and (b) the challenges faced by coaches are communicated to sports scientists. The vision of the journal is to support the development of a community in which: (i) sports scientists and coaches respect and learn from each other as they assist athletes to acquire skills by training safely and effectively, thereby enhancing their performance, maximizing their enjoyment of the sporting experience and facilitating character development; and (ii) scientific research is embraced in the quest to uncover, understand and develop the processes involved in sports coaching and elite performance.
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