Impact of Agricultural Variables on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) In Nigeria

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to estimate the contribution of agricultural variables to the economic growth and development of Nigeria as a whole using quarterly data from the first quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2022. The data was sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics Nigeria on fishery, forestry, crop production and livestock. Time series analysis was used for fitting decomposition model (additive and multiplication) with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). The result showed that the Gross Domestic Product (the total monetary value of goods produced in years) on livestock, fishery, forestry, and crop production in the first quarter and fourth quarter is less than the quarterly average while in the second quarter and third quarter is higher than the quarterly average. SARIMA model was used to test for adequacy and the result of SARIMA (1,0,1)x(1,0,1)4, SARIMA (2,0,1)x(2,0,1)4,  SARIMA (2,0,1)x(2,1,1)4 were found to be adequate and any of these could be used for further forecasting. It is therefore recommended that there will be much gain if investment should be made in fishery, livestock, forestry, and crop production in the second and third quarters of the year.