МАКРОЕКОНОМІЧНІ РИЗИКИ РЕАЛІЗАЦІЇ ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНОГО ТА ЗЕЛЕНОГО ПЕРЕХОДІВ В УМОВАХ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЇ НЕВИЗНАЧЕНОСТІ МІЖНАРОДНОГО ЕКОНОМІЧНОГО РОЗВИТКУ

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to identify the risks of implementing the energy and green transitions for the macroeconomic environment of the national economies of exporting countries and importing countries of energy, raw materials and mineral resources in the context of transformation of the economic environment. New manifestations of energy inflation have been studied — climateflation, fossilflation, greenflation. It has been established that the energy and green transitions, defined as a non-alternative megatrend of international economic development, have an impact on all areas of international economic relations and on the macroeconomic environment. An attempt to provide a unified approach to identifying risks from the implementation of these transitions is subject to experts' failure to accept optimistic scenarios for the deployment of transformation processes. When studying the macroeconomic consequences of the energy transition, at least three groups of countries should be distinguished: fossil fuel exporting countries, which are experiencing the problem of worsening balance of payments and budget deficits, which will lead to a forced search for new models of economic growth; fossil fuel importing countries that will diversify supplies of alternative energy resources; countries exporting resources of strategic importance for the energy and green transition, which can improve their trade balances and receive additional budget revenues when a new resource supercycle begins. A commodity supercycle is an extended, long-term period of rising commodity prices, typically driven by increasing demand while supply is tight. Nevertheless, commodity supercycles are not a continuous linear increase in prices, but periods when a sharp increase is followed by an equally sharp correction. For a commodity cycle to become a true supercycle, there must be some structural shift in demand, driven by major economic change, that keeps prices elevated for many years. Today, the recovery in demand, coupled with unprecedented levels of fiscal (increasing government spending), monetary (low interest rates, quantitative easing and helicopter money) policy support and increased attention to climate change, has led to one of the sharpest price increases in the world. commodities over a long history of observations.