Tourism Management Modelling: What It Does and Does Not

Li Li
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Abstract

The article presents a critical review of my past attempts in social phenomenon modelling. The review brings up issues embedded in positivist paradigm that are concerned with the cause-effect covering law based on purely events regularities, ontological conflation, and the symmetry principle of positivism i.e., explanation = prediction. Incorporating new realist thinking in contemporary philosophy of critical realism, practical solutions are suggested to overcome the issues, which encourage the use of mixed methods, analytical dualism, application of realist notion of causal laws, and that of not lawlike predictions.
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旅游管理建模:它能做什么,不能做什么
文章对我过去在社会现象建模方面的尝试进行了批判性回顾。评论提出了实证主义范式中的问题,这些问题涉及基于纯粹事件规律性的因果覆盖法则、本体论混淆以及实证主义的对称原则,即解释 = 预测。结合当代批判现实主义哲学中的新现实主义思想,提出了克服这些问题的切实可行的解决方案,鼓励使用混合方法、分析二元论、应用现实主义的因果规律概念以及非规律性预测。
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