Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall and streamflow in the Alto Paranapanema Basin, Brazil

Abstract

Climate change has the potential to fundamentally transform landscapes on a global scale. Leveraging advanced predictive modeling to enhance water resource management within the Alto Paranapanema Basin (Brazil), holds the potential to proactively anticipate challenges and alleviate the impacts and conflicts arising from this phenomenon. This is particularly important in a region boasting over 1,600 center-pivot irrigation systems. This study employs the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure, a physical model, to simulate long-term climate datasets and flows. Future climate scenarios, rooted in the Representative Concentration Pathways, are developed through the downscaling of Global Climate Models. The findings reveal a temporal shift in rainfall patterns, characterized by a reduction during the wet season of up to −40% compared to the average historical rainfall, and an increase throughout the dry season up to 40% compared to the same historical, estimated by the Eta–BESM model. These changes present challenges regarding to water availability, hydroelectric generation, and agricultural sustainability. By fostering collaboration among different governmental entities responsible for the managements of basins and harnessing the potential of predictive models, this research advocates for the adoption of proactive strategies in management of water resources. These strategies are imperative to effectively counteract the far-reaching effects of climate change.