Evaluation and projection of extreme precipitation using CMIP6 model simulations in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

The capabilities of 23 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 were evaluated for six extreme precipitation indices from 1961 to 2010 using interannual variability and Taylor skill scores in the Yellow River Basin and its eight subregions. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of extreme precipitation indices were projected from 2021 to 2050 under the shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5). The results show that most GCMs perform well in simulating extreme values (1-day maximum precipitation (RX1day) and 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5day)), duration (consecutive dry days), and intensity index (simple daily intensity index (SDII)), and perform poor in simulating the threshold indices (precipitation on very wet days (R95p) and number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm)). The projected changes in extreme precipitation indicate that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, future extreme precipitation will increase by 15.7% (RX1day), 15.8% (RX5day), 30.3% (R95p), 1d (R10mm), and 6.6% (SDII), respectively, decrease by 2.1d (CDD). The aforementioned changes are further enhanced under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation changes widely in Hekou Town to Longmen, in the northeastern part of the region from Longmen to Sanmenxia, below Huayuankou, and in the interflow basin.