Unveiling climatic niches for deeper insights into invasion potential and enhanced distribution models of freshwater fishes

Abstract

Introduced species may exhibit variations in their preferred climatic niches between their native and introduced ranges, which can have important implications for the transferability of distribution models. In the Himalayan ecoregion, little is known about the geographic distribution and climatic niche overlap between native and introduced cold-water species. Here, we used the COUE (centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion) framework to explore the invasive potential of rainbow (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brown (Salmo trutta fario) trout and corresponding climatic niche overlap with native snow trout (Schizothorax plagiostomus and Schizothorax richardsonii) in the Indus and Ganges River basins. Although we found more stability in the climatic niche for O. mykiss (93%) than S. trutta (58%), both species do not conserve their climatic niches in this region (p > 0.05). S. trutta has expanded more toward new environmental conditions (42%) compared to O. mykiss (7%). However, there are still available environmental gaps that O. mykiss and S. trutta can potentially occupy in the future. There was a higher overlap in climatic niches between S. plagiostomus and O. mykiss and between S. richardsonii and S. trutta. Observed shifts in climatic niches of these introduced species can negatively affect the transferability of distribution models, which may underestimate the assessments of habitat suitability for introduced trout in the Himalayas. Our study demonstrates that the information on climatic niche dynamics can inform the model-building process and improve the transferability and predictive performance to better assess vulnerability of sensitive habitats to introduced species in the Himalayas and elsewhere.