The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth From the Perspective of Population External System

Xueyi Wang, Taiyi He, Shengzhe Wang, Haoxiang Zhao
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Abstract

Artificial intelligence has sophisticated social and economic effects that cannot be ignored. Based on a thorough review of the development of artificial intelligence, this paper systematically explores the mechanism of the impact of artificial intelligence on economic growth through technology, value and application three paths, which is starting from the perspective of the population external system. In order to verify the rationality of the paths, the effect of artificial intelligence on economic growth from the perspective of population external system is rigorously estimated using artificial intelligence and macroeconomic data for China from 2011 to 2019. The findings are as follows. Firstly, there is a significant positive effect of artificial intelligence on the economic growth from the perspective of the population external system. This positive effect is sufficiently robust over the sample-wide period. Secondly, there is significant regional heterogeneity in the effect of artificial intelligence on economic growth from the perspective of the population external system. The low levels of artificial intelligence development impeded the economic growth, the middle levels of artificial intelligence development contributed significantly to the economic growth, and the high levels of artificial intelligence development did not show a significant contribution to the economic growth. In view of this, future policies should be designed in terms of revitalizing the value of the artificial intelligence stock, exploring the value potential of artificial intelligence and regulating it in a hierarchical manner.
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从人口外部系统看人工智能对经济增长的影响
人工智能具有不可忽视的复杂社会经济效应。本文在全面梳理人工智能发展的基础上,从人口外部系统的视角出发,通过技术、价值和应用三个路径,系统地探讨了人工智能对经济增长的影响机制。为了验证路径的合理性,利用人工智能和中国2011-2019年的宏观经济数据,从人口外部系统的角度对人工智能对经济增长的影响进行了严格的估算。研究结果如下。首先,从人口外部系统角度看,人工智能对经济增长有显著的正向影响。这种正效应在整个样本期间都足够稳健。其次,从人口外部系统角度看,人工智能对经济增长的影响存在明显的地区异质性。低水平的人工智能发展阻碍了经济增长,中等水平的人工智能发展显著促进了经济增长,而高水平的人工智能发展对经济增长的贡献并不明显。有鉴于此,未来的政策设计应从盘活人工智能存量价值、挖掘人工智能价值潜力、分层调控人工智能等方面入手。
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