Urban Growth Pattern Changes Model in Small Island of Aceh Province, Indonesia: Implications for Sustainable Spatial Development

Abstract

Developing models for land use and land cover (LULC) and monitoring changes through predictive scenarios is crucial for supporting urban development strategies and improving our understanding of urban dynamics. Analysis of urban growth patterns based on LULC data from remote sensing using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) provides valuable insights into LULC changes. The CA-Markov model was used to predict LULC changes based on maps for 2012 and 2023, derived from satellite imagery using the maximum likelihood method, with an accuracy of 93% and 94% for each map. Analysis of urban growth patterns in Sabang City from 2013 to 2021 shows that the expansion of the built-up area is mainly driven by the conversion of bareland around the city center, with a 67% expansion pattern, 1% infilling pattern, and 16% outlying pattern. In Scenario 1, the growth of the built-up area in the city center is not significant, while in Scenario 2, the built-up area is projected to increase by 32 hectares to 742.6428 hectares by 2032. The urban growth pattern aligns better with Scenario 2, which emphasizes land conservation for forests and water bodies to preserve the highest carbon reserves from LULC changes .