How do perceptions, fears, and experiences of violence and conflict affect considerations of moving internally and internationally?

Abstract

This article draws on cross-country survey and qualitative data for local areas within Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Somalia to explore how perceptions, fears, and experiences of violence affect how young adults consider whether or not to move, internally, within their own countries, or internationally. We shed new light on how different forms and intensities of violence and conflict, ranging from tribal violence in Northern Nigeria to the encroachment of the Taliban in Afghanistan, affect these considerations. We show that, in most cases, perceiving insecurity, fearing, or having experienced violence does not result in people considering moving. However, where significant, it is specific fears and experiences that affect considerations, rather than general perceptions of insecurity. We observe distinct patterns across the local areas, related to the duration, intensity, and nature of the conflict, underscoring the salience of sub-national-level data to better understand the interplay of conflict and mobility.