Personalised prediction of maintenance dialysis initiation in patients with chronic kidney disease stages 3–5: a multicentre study using the machine learning approach

Abstract

Background Optimal timing for initiating maintenance dialysis in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3–5 is challenging. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model for early personalised prediction of maintenance dialysis initiation within 1-year and 3-year timeframes among patients with CKD stages 3–5. Methods Retrospective electronic health record data from the Taipei Medical University clinical research database were used. Newly diagnosed patients with CKD stages 3–5 between 2008 and 2017 were identified. The observation period spanned from the diagnosis of CKD stages 3–5 until the maintenance dialysis initiation or a maximum follow-up of 3 years. Predictive models were developed using patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory data and medications. The dataset was divided into training and testing sets to ensure robust model performance. Model evaluation metrics, including area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and F1 score, were employed. Results A total of 6123 and 5279 patients were included for 1 year and 3 years of the model development. The artificial neural network demonstrated better performance in predicting maintenance dialysis initiation within 1 year and 3 years, with AUC values of 0.96 and 0.92, respectively. Important features such as baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria significantly contributed to the predictive model. Conclusion This study demonstrates the efficacy of an ML approach in developing a highly predictive model for estimating the timing of maintenance dialysis initiation in patients with CKD stages 3–5. These findings have important implications for personalised treatment strategies, enabling improved clinical decision-making and potentially enhancing patient outcomes. Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available.