Assessing the Differentiated Impacts of COVID-19 on the Immigration Flows to Europe

Abstract

The immediate effects of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility, and internal and international migration have been widely studied. Particularly, immigration to high-income countries declined in 2020. However, the persistence of these declines and the extent to which they have impacted different migration flows are yet to be established. Drawing on immigration flows from Eurostat and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on different immigration streams to seven European countries. We forecast counterfactual levels of immigration in 2020 and 2021 assuming no pandemic, and compare these estimates with actual immigration counts. We use regression modeling to explore the role of immigrants’ origin, distance, stringency measures, and gross domestic product (GDP) trends at origins and destinations as potential driving forces of changes in immigration during COVID-19. Our results show that, while there was a general decline in immigration during 2020, inflows returned to expected levels in 2021, except for Spain. However, drops in immigration flows from countries outside the Schengen Area to Europe persisted in 2021. Immigrants’ origin emerged as the main factor modulating immigration changes during the pandemic, and to a lesser extent stringency measures and GDP trends in destination countries. Contextual factors at origin seem to have been less important.