Global Burden of Dementia Death from 1990 to 2019, with Projections to 2050: An Analysis of 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

Z. Li, N. Yang, L. He, J. Wang, Y. Yang, F. Ping, L. Xu, Huabing Zhang, Wei Li, Yuxiu Li
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Abstract

Background

Dementia is a growing global health challenge. Quantifying the current burden and predicting the future increases of dementia-related deaths are necessary to enhance effective policy decisions and health system planning.

Methods

Data on dementia mortality was derived from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 study. The 2020–2050 dementia-related deaths were forecasted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results

Globally, the number of dementia-related death increased from 0.56 million in 1990 to 1.62 million in 2019 and were estimated to increase to 4.91 million by the year 2050. Metabolic risk factors would become the most important modifiable risk factors affecting dementia death which account for 28.10% of dementia related death by the year 2050. For different Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, the low SDI region would have the highest age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (29.16 per 100,000) by 2050. Moreover, the number of dementia-related deaths under the age of 70 years was predicted to reach 0.18 million by 2050.

Conclusions

Dementia related death remains a global health problem, and health policies targeting metabolic risk factors may be an important way to alleviate this problem.

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1990 年至 2019 年全球痴呆症死亡负担及到 2050 年的预测:2019年全球疾病负担研究分析
背景痴呆症是一项日益严峻的全球健康挑战。为了加强有效的政策决策和卫生系统规划,有必要量化当前的负担并预测未来痴呆症相关死亡人数的增长。方法痴呆症死亡率数据来自《2019 年全球疾病、伤害和风险因素负担研究》(GBD)。结果在全球范围内,与痴呆症相关的死亡人数从1990年的56万增至2019年的162万,预计到2050年将增至491万。到 2050 年,代谢风险因素将成为影响痴呆症死亡的最重要的可改变风险因素,占痴呆症相关死亡的 28.10%。就不同社会人口指数(SDI)地区而言,到2050年,低社会人口指数地区的年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)最高(每10万人中29.16人)。此外,预计到 2050 年,70 岁以下与痴呆症相关的死亡人数将达到 18 万人。结论与痴呆症相关的死亡仍然是一个全球性的健康问题,针对代谢风险因素的健康政策可能是缓解这一问题的重要途径。
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The Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer's Disease
The Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer's Disease Medicine-Psychiatry and Mental Health
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9.20
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期刊介绍: The JPAD Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer’Disease will publish reviews, original research articles and short reports to improve our knowledge in the field of Alzheimer prevention including: neurosciences, biomarkers, imaging, epidemiology, public health, physical cognitive exercise, nutrition, risk and protective factors, drug development, trials design, and heath economic outcomes.JPAD will publish also the meeting abstracts from Clinical Trial on Alzheimer Disease (CTAD) and will be distributed both in paper and online version worldwide.We hope that JPAD with your contribution will play a role in the development of Alzheimer prevention.
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