Z. Li, N. Yang, L. He, J. Wang, Y. Yang, F. Ping, L. Xu, Huabing Zhang, Wei Li, Yuxiu Li
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background
Dementia is a growing global health challenge. Quantifying the current burden and predicting the future increases of dementia-related deaths are necessary to enhance effective policy decisions and health system planning.
Methods
Data on dementia mortality was derived from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 study. The 2020–2050 dementia-related deaths were forecasted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
Results
Globally, the number of dementia-related death increased from 0.56 million in 1990 to 1.62 million in 2019 and were estimated to increase to 4.91 million by the year 2050. Metabolic risk factors would become the most important modifiable risk factors affecting dementia death which account for 28.10% of dementia related death by the year 2050. For different Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, the low SDI region would have the highest age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (29.16 per 100,000) by 2050. Moreover, the number of dementia-related deaths under the age of 70 years was predicted to reach 0.18 million by 2050.
Conclusions
Dementia related death remains a global health problem, and health policies targeting metabolic risk factors may be an important way to alleviate this problem.
期刊介绍:
The JPAD Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer’Disease will publish reviews, original research articles and short reports to improve our knowledge in the field of Alzheimer prevention including: neurosciences, biomarkers, imaging, epidemiology, public health, physical cognitive exercise, nutrition, risk and protective factors, drug development, trials design, and heath economic outcomes.JPAD will publish also the meeting abstracts from Clinical Trial on Alzheimer Disease (CTAD) and will be distributed both in paper and online version worldwide.We hope that JPAD with your contribution will play a role in the development of Alzheimer prevention.