Supervised and unsupervised techniques to analyze risk factors associated with motorcycle crash.

Abstract

Purpose: Motorcycles are one of the highly used modes of transport in Barcelona, Spain, in particular, and in many different regions, in general. This situation is compromising safety on the road and may be attributed to a potential increase in traffic crashes. Therefore, this study examines several risk factors and their consequential impacts on the level of injury that is resulted in case of a traffic crash.

Methods: Two approaches are employed to analyze the risk factors, including a supervised learning technique which is a binary probit model, and an unsupervised technique which is the Kohonen clustering.

Results: The results for both models show that alcoholism and road in poor condition can indeed increase the probability of having different levels of injuries as reasons for the crash. Elderly users are less likely to be involved in motorcycle crash injuries compared to other age categories, especially the age group that ranges from 25 to 40 years old which has the highest odds. For both techniques, the performance in analyzing the utilized data shows that both approaches can be successfully utilized for this type of dataset.

Conclusion: This study highlights the considerable danger faced by motorcyclists due to various risk factors. It stresses the critical importance of maintaining roads in optimal condition not just for efficient travel but also to enhance motorcyclists' safety. Additionally, the research underscores the significant threat posed by speeding, particularly exceeding speed limits, to motorcyclists' safety, emphasizing the urgent need for more 30 km/h speed limit zones and stricter enforcement of speed regulations. As a result, the research has identified several risk factors that increase the likelihood of severe or fatal injuries among motorcyclists in Barcelona and has suggested certain recommendations to mitigate their impact.