Global, regional, and national burden of heatwave-related mortality from 1990 to 2019: A three-stage modelling study.

IF 15.8 1区 医学 Q1 Medicine PLoS Medicine Pub Date : 2024-05-14 eCollection Date: 2024-05-01 DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1004364
Qi Zhao, Shanshan Li, Tingting Ye, Yao Wu, Antonio Gasparrini, Shilu Tong, Aleš Urban, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Aurelio Tobias, Ben Armstrong, Dominic Royé, Eric Lavigne, Francesca de'Donato, Francesco Sera, Haidong Kan, Joel Schwartz, Mathilde Pascal, Niilo Ryti, Patrick Goodman, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Michelle L Bell, Yuming Guo
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Abstract

Background: The regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality over a long period has not been sufficiently assessed across the globe, impeding the localisation of adaptation planning and risk management towards climate change. We quantified the global mortality burden associated with heatwaves at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° and the temporal change from 1990 to 2019.

Methods and findings: We collected data on daily deaths and temperature from 750 locations of 43 countries or regions, and 5 meta-predictors in 0.5°×0.5° resolution across the world. Heatwaves were defined as location-specific daily mean temperature ≥95th percentiles of year-round temperature range with duration ≥2 days. We first estimated the location-specific heatwave-mortality association. Secondly, a multivariate meta-regression was fitted between location-specific associations and 5 meta-predictors, which was in the third stage used with grid cell-specific meta-predictors to predict grid cell-specific association. Heatwave-related excess deaths were calculated for each grid and aggregated. During 1990 to 2019, 0.94% (95% CI: 0.68-1.19) of deaths [i.e., 153,078 cases (95% eCI: 109,950-194,227)] per warm season were estimated to be from heatwaves, accounting for 236 (95% eCI: 170-300) deaths per 10 million residents. The ratio between heatwave-related excess deaths and all premature deaths per warm season remained relatively unchanged over the 30 years, while the number of heatwave-related excess deaths per 10 million residents per warm season declined by 7.2% per decade in comparison to the 30-year average. Locations with the highest heatwave-related death ratio and rate were in Southern and Eastern Europe or areas had polar and alpine climates, and/or their residents had high incomes. The temporal change of heatwave-related mortality burden showed geographic disparities, such that locations with tropical climate or low incomes were observed with the greatest decline. The main limitation of this study was the lack of data from certain regions, e.g., Arabian Peninsula and South Asia.

Conclusions: Heatwaves were associated with substantial mortality burden that varied spatiotemporally over the globe in the past 30 years. The findings indicate the potential benefit of governmental actions to enhance health sector adaptation and resilience, accounting for inequalities across communities.

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1990 至 2019 年全球、地区和国家与热浪相关的死亡率负担:三阶段模型研究。
背景:长期以来,全球范围内与热浪相关的死亡率的地区差异尚未得到充分评估,这阻碍了针对气候变化的适应规划和风险管理的本地化。我们以 0.5°×0.5° 的空间分辨率量化了与热浪相关的全球死亡率负担,以及从 1990 年到 2019 年的时间变化:我们收集了全球 43 个国家或地区 750 个地点的日死亡人数和气温数据,以及 5 个 0.5°×0.5° 分辨率的元预测因子。热浪的定义是特定地点的日平均气温≥全年气温范围的第 95 百分位数,且持续时间≥2 天。我们首先估算了特定地点热浪与死亡率的关系。其次,在特定地点相关性和 5 个元预测因子之间建立多元元回归,并在第三阶段与特定网格单元的元预测因子一起用于预测特定网格单元的相关性。计算出每个网格与热浪相关的超额死亡人数并进行汇总。据估计,在 1990 年至 2019 年期间,每个温暖季节有 0.94% (95% CI:0.68-1.19)的死亡病例[即 153,078 例(95% eCI:109,950-194,227)]死于热浪,即每 1,000 万居民中有 236 例(95% eCI:170-300)死亡病例。在这30年中,每个温暖季节与热浪相关的超额死亡人数与所有过早死亡人数之间的比率保持相对不变,而与30年平均水平相比,每个温暖季节每1000万居民中与热浪相关的超额死亡人数每十年下降了7.2%。与热浪相关的死亡率最高的地区位于南欧和东欧,或者是极地和高山气候地区,以及/或其居民收入较高的地区。与热浪相关的死亡负担的时间变化显示出地域差异,热带气候或低收入地区的下降幅度最大。这项研究的主要局限性在于缺乏某些地区的数据,如阿拉伯半岛和南亚:结论:在过去 30 年中,热浪与全球不同时空的大量死亡相关联。研究结果表明,考虑到各社区之间的不平等,政府采取行动加强卫生部门的适应性和复原力可能会带来益处。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
PLoS Medicine
PLoS Medicine MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL-
CiteScore
17.60
自引率
0.60%
发文量
227
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: PLOS Medicine is a prominent platform for discussing and researching global health challenges. The journal covers a wide range of topics, including biomedical, environmental, social, and political factors affecting health. It prioritizes articles that contribute to clinical practice, health policy, or a better understanding of pathophysiology, ultimately aiming to improve health outcomes across different settings. The journal is unwavering in its commitment to uphold the highest ethical standards in medical publishing. This includes actively managing and disclosing any conflicts of interest related to reporting, reviewing, and publishing. PLOS Medicine promotes transparency in the entire review and publication process. The journal also encourages data sharing and encourages the reuse of published work. Additionally, authors retain copyright for their work, and the publication is made accessible through Open Access with no restrictions on availability and dissemination. PLOS Medicine takes measures to avoid conflicts of interest associated with advertising drugs and medical devices or engaging in the exclusive sale of reprints.
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