Emergence and dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 XBB.1.5 in New York

Abstract

The recombinant SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XBB.1.5 variant was first detected in New York City (NYC) and rapidly became the predominant variant in the area by early 2023. The increased occurrence of circulating variants within the SARS-CoV-2 XBB-sublineage prompted the modification of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech. This update, implemented in mid-September 2023, involved the incorporation of a monovalent XBB.1.5 component. Considering that NYC probably played a central role in the emergence of the XBB.1.5 variant, we conducted phylogeographic analysis to investigate the emergence and spread of this variant in the metropolitan area. Our analysis confirms that XBB.1.5 emerged within or near the NYC area and indicates that XBB.1.5 had a diffusion velocity similar to that of the variant Alpha in the same study area. Additionally, the analysis of 2,392 genomes collected in the context of the genomic surveillance program at NYU Langone Health system (NYULH) showed that there was no increased proportion of XBB.1.5, relative to all cocirculating variants, in the boosted compared to unvaccinated individuals. This study provides a comprehensive description of the emergence and dissemination of XBB.1.5.